Ohio Resource Center
NAEP Assessment Item, Grade 4: Determine a Probability
4, 5
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Professional Commentary

This item asks students to determine a simple probability. This multiple-choice question is a sample test item used in grade 4 in the 1996 National Assessment of Educational Progress (see About NAEP). The URL link (above) takes the user directly to the NAEP test item, with access to performance data by various subgroups of students, a scoring key, and discussion of the content on which the item is based. The NAEP website allows users to build their own printable database of test items by clicking on Add Question in the upper right hand corner of the screen. NAEP Reference Number: 1996-4M9, No. 9. (sw)

Ohio Mathematics Academic Content Standards (2001)
Data Analysis and Probability Standard
Benchmarks (5–7)
Describe the probability of an event using ratios, including fractional notation.
Grade Level Indicators (Grade 4)
Represent the likelihood of possible outcomes for chance situations; e.g., probability of selecting a red marble from a bag containing 3 red and 5 white marbles.
Grade Level Indicators (Grade 5)
Identify the probability of events within a simple experiment, such as three chances out of eight.
Use 0,1 and ratios between 0 and 1 to represent the probability of outcomes for an event, and associate the ratio with the likelihood of the outcome.
Principles and Standards for School Mathematics
Data Analysis and Probability Standard
Understand and apply basic concepts of probability
Expectations (3–5)
predict the probability of outcomes of simple experiments and test the predictions;